The AIM/end-use model and its application to forecast Japanese carbon dioxide emissions

AIM (Asian-Pacific Integrated Model) has been developed for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and evaluating policy measures to reduce them. Two socio-economic scenarios were assumed and CO2 emissions were predicted based on these scenarios and policy intervention assumptions. It is found that mitigating CO2 emissions by 6% to the 1990 level without scaling back productive activities or standards of living in Japan is possible. However, if one relies on the market mechanism alone, it cannot be done. The analysis has shown that it is indispensable to introduce new policies and measures such as carbon tax and subsidies.